Climate Open Access
Here are some Open Access articles:
Comment
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Comment by Elodie Tronche on February 7, 2012 at 9:35am
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Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-011-9356-0
Abstract
Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) pose risks to coastal communities around the world, but societal understanding of the distributional and equity implications of SLR impacts and adaptation actions remains limited. Here, we apply a new analytic tool to identify geographic areas in the contiguous United States that may be more likely to experience disproportionate impacts of SLR, and to determine if and where socially vulnerable populations would bear disproportionate costs of adaptation. We use the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to identify socially vulnerable coastal communities, and combine this with output from a SLR coastal property model that evaluates threats of inundation and the economic efficiency of adaptation approaches to respond to those threats. Results show that under the mid-SLR scenario (66.9 cm by 2100), approximately 1,630,000 people are potentially affected by SLR. Of these, 332,000 (∼20%) are among the most socially vulnerable. The analysis also finds that areas of higher social vulnerability are much more likely to be abandoned than protected in response to SLR. This finding is particularly true in the Gulf region of the United States, where over 99% of the most socially vulnerable people live in areas unlikely to be protected from inundation, in stark contrast to the least socially vulnerable group, where only 8% live in areas unlikely to be protected. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the equity and environmental justice implications of SLR in climate change policy analysis and coastal adaptation planning.
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Continuous measurement of methane flux over a larch forest using a relaxed eddy accumulation method
Open Access
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-012-0587-0
Abstract
We measured the methane flux of a forest canopy throughout a year using a relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) method. This sampling system was carefully validated against heat and CO2 fluxes measured by the eddy covariance method. Although the sampling system was robust, there were large uncertainties in the measured methane fluxes because of the limited precision of the methane gas analyzer. Based on the spectral characteristics of signals from the methane analyzer and the diurnal variations in the standard deviation of the vertical wind velocity, we found the daytime and nighttime precision of half-hourly methane flux measurements to be approximately 1.2 and 0.7 μg CH4 m−2 s−1, respectively. Additional uncertainties caused by the dilution effect were estimated to affect the accuracy by as much as 0.21 μg CH4 m−2 s−1 on a half-hourly basis. Diurnal and seasonal variations were observed in the measured fluxes. The biological emission from plant leaves was not observed in our studies, and thus could be negligible at the canopy-scale exchange. The annual methane sink was 835 ± 175 mg CH4 m−2 year−1(8.35 kg CH4 ha−1 year−1), which was comparable to the flux range of 379–2,478 mg CH4 m−2 year−1 previously measured in other Japanese forest soils. This study indicated that the REA method could be a promising technique to measure canopy scale methane fluxes over forests, but further improvement of precision of the analyzer will be required.
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Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979–2008)
Open access:
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1266-z
Abstract
The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth’s climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east–west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a “wet-gets-wetter” trend pattern and indirectly a “dry-gets-drier” trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms.
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A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty. A case study: coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0353-9
Abstract
Existing methods for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in productive activities and sectors are usually limited to point estimates that do not consider the inherent variability and uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic variables. This is a major drawback given that only a limited and potentially misleading estimation of risk can be expected when ignoring such determinant factors. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced that is capable of integrating the agent’s beliefs and expert judgment into the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in a quantitative manner by means of an objective procedure. The goal is to produce tailor-made information to assist decision-making under uncertainty in a way that is consistent with the current state of knowledge and the available subjective “expert” information. Time-charts of the evolution of different risk measures, that can be relevant for assisting decision-making and planning, can be constructed using this new methodology. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of coffee production in Mexico. Time-dependent probabilistic scenarios for coffee production and income, conditional on the agent’s beliefs and expert judgment, are developed for the average producer under uncertain future conditions. It is shown that variability in production and income, generated by introducing climate variability and uncertainty are important factors affecting decision-making and the assessment of economic viability that are frequently ignored. The concept of Value at Risk, commonly applied in financial risk management, is introduced as a means for estimating the maximum expected loss for a previously chosen confidence level. Results are tailor-made for agents that have incomplete information and different beliefs. In this case study, the costs of climate change for coffee production in Veracruz are estimated to have a present value representing from 3 to 14 times the current annual value of coffee production in the state.
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Comment by climatescinet on December 21, 2011 at 6:02am -
Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data
Open Access:
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0368-2
Abstract
Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production, with negative impacts that can at times be detected at regional scales. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Reported regional maize and wheat yields where historically low in 2003; in 2007 wheat yields were lower and maize yields higher than long-term averages. An analysis with a spatial version (10 × 10 km) of the EPIC crop model was tested with regards to regional crop yield anomalies of wheat and maize resulting from extreme weather events in France in 2003 and 2007, by comparing simulated results against reported regional crops statistics, as well as using remotely sensed soil moisture data. Causal relations between soil moisture and crop yields were specifically analyzed. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture correlated significantly with reported regional crop yield for 2002–2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture data correlated positively with wheat yield anomalies from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. EPIC reproduced observed soil dynamics well, and it reproduced the negative wheat and maize yield anomalies of the 2003 heat wave and drought, as well as the positive maize yield anomalies in wet 2007. However, it did not reproduce the negative wheat yield anomalies due to excessive rains and wetness in 2007. Results indicated that EPIC, in line with other crop models widely used at regional level in climate change studies, is capable of capturing the negative impacts of droughts on crop yields, while it fails to reproduce negative impacts of heavy rain and excessively wet conditions on wheat yield, due to poor representations of critical factors affecting plant growth and management. Given that extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and perhaps severity in coming decades, improved model representation of crop damage due to extreme events is warranted in order to better quantify future climate change impacts and inform appropriate adaptation responses.
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Comment by climatescinet on December 21, 2011 at 6:02am
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Uncertainty forecast from 3-D super-ensemble multi-model combination: validation and calibration
Open Access:
DOI: 10.1007/s10236-011-0504-6
Abstract
Measurements collected during the Recognized Environmental Picture 2010 experiment (REP10) in the Ligurian Sea are used to evaluate 3-D super-ensemble (3DSE) 72-hour temperature predictions and their associated uncertainty. The 3DSE reduces the total Root-Mean-Square Difference by 12 and 32% respectively with reference to the ensemble mean and the most accurate of the models when comparing to regularly distributed surface temperature data. When validating against irregularly distributed in situ observations, the 3DSE, ensemble mean and most accurate model lead to similar scores. The 3DSE temperature uncertainty estimate is obtained from the product of a posteriori model weight error covariances by an operator containing model forecast values. This uncertainty prediction is evaluated using a criterion based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the error distribution. The 3DSE error is found to be on average underestimated during the forecast period, reflecting (i) the influence of ocean dynamics and (ii) inaccuracies in the a priori weight error correlations. A calibration of the theoretical 3DSE uncertainty is proposed for the REP10 scenario, based on a time-evolving amplification coefficient applied to the a posteriori weight error covariance matrix. This calibration allows the end-user to be confident that, on average, the true ocean state lies in the −2/+2 3DSE uncertainty range in 95% of the cases.
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Comment by climatescinet on December 21, 2011 at 6:02am
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Episodes of extreme rainwater pollution and its relationship with synoptic situation (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland)
Leszek Kolendowicz, Ewa Bednorz, Barbara Walna and Iwona Kurzyca
Open Access:
JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
DOI: 10.1007/s10874-011-9209-y
Abstract
Synoptic conditions of extreme rainwater pollution episodes, evidenced by maximum values of parameters measured in the protected area of Wielkopolski National Park (western-central Poland), were analysed in this study. Precipitation samples were tested for the following parameters: pH, electrical conductivity and the concentration of the following elements: F-, Cl-, NO2-, NO3-, PO43-, SO42- and Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+. It was assumed, that in winter, western advection of Atlantic air masses was the most frequent aerosol and pollution transport scenario for the investigated area. In summer the most heavily pollution occur at the intensified meridional flow over the central Europe, indicating advection of cooler air from northern Europe and the North Sea. In most of cases, the weather conditions causing extreme concentration of examined pollutants, were determined by the movement of weather fronts over considerable parts of Poland and by precipitation caused by those fronts.
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Comment by climatescinet on December 16, 2011 at 4:04am
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On the relative role of sea salt cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)
Open access:
JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
DOI: 10.1007/s10874-011-9210-5
Abstract
Contrasts between cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectral volatility (thermal fractionation) measurements in two aircraft field projects provide insight into the relative contribution of sea salt. During the much more cloudy Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) project there was a high correlation coefficient (R) between refractory (non-volatile) CCN concentrations (NCCN) and horizontal wind speed (U), especially for low supersaturation (S) NCCN, whereas this R was significantly lower in the nearly cloud free Pacific Aerosol Sulfur Experiment (PASE) project. Volatile NCCN at all S were uncorrelated with U. Ambient particle concentrations over a broad range of large sizes displayed consistently high R with U in both projects that was similar to the R of refractory NCCN with U in RICO. The size range of this high R extended down to 0.2 μm in RICO but only down to 9 μm in PASE. In both projects particle concentrations smaller than these respective sizes were highly correlated with NCCN, at all S in PASE, but mainly with NCCN at high S in RICO. In each project NCCN at all S was uncorrelated with all ambient particle concentrations larger than these same respective sizes. NCCN at all S was also uncorrelated with U in both projects. The contrast in cloudiness between the two projects was responsible for many of the differences noted between the two projects. The results indicate that the effects of clouds on NCCN play a major role in the relative influence of sea salt on NCCN and ultimately on climate. Sea salt is a minor component of maritime CCN except at high wind speeds especially at low S.
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Comment by DR. NIHAR RANJAN SAMAL on December 10, 2011 at 11:09pm
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vistit the following links:
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Comment by climatescinet on November 28, 2011 at 4:24am
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The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services
Open access content:
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0313-4
Abstract
Ecosystem services play a crucial role in sustaining human well-being and economic viability. People benefit substantially from the delivery of ecosystem services, for which substitutes usually are costly or unavailable. Climate change will substantially alter or eliminate certain ecosystem services in the future. To better understand the consequences of climate change and to develop effective means of adapting to them, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the links between climate, ecosystem service production, and the economy. This study examines the impact of climate change on the terrestrial distribution and the subsequent production and value of two key ecosystem services in California: (1) carbon sequestration and (2) natural (i.e. non-irrigated) forage production for livestock. Under various scenarios of future climate change, we predict that the provision and value of ecosystem services decline under most, but not all, future greenhouse gas trajectories. The predicted changes would result in decreases in the economic output for the state and global economy and illustrate some of the hidden costs of climate change. Since existing information is insufficient to conduct impact analysis across most ecosystem services, a comprehensive research program focused on estimating the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services will be important for understanding, mitigating and adapting to future losses in ecosystem service production and the economic value they provide.
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Comment by climatescinet on November 28, 2011 at 4:20am
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Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models
open access content:
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1234-7
Abstract
Future change in precipitation intensity of East Asian summer monsoon is investigated using the present-day climate simulations (1991–2000) and the future climate simulations (2091–2100, A1B emission scenario) by the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) models. Target period is the month from June to July which is the main part of the rainy season over Japan and Korea. In the present-day climate simulations, we have quantitatively evaluated model’s reproducibility of precipitation climatology and Simple Daily precipitation Intensity Index (SDII), using skill S proposed by Taylor (J Geophys Res 106:7183–7192, 2001). Models with higher reproducibility of precipitation climatology tend to show higher reproducibility of precipitation intensity. In the future climate simulations, simple Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) average using all models show the increase of precipitation intensity over almost all regions of East Asia. Introduction of S as weighting factor does not make large difference in the geographical distribution of precipitation intensity change. In case of MME using five best models, the geographical pattern of precipitation intensity change is qualitatively similar to that using all models, but the local magnitude of changes are much affected by the best model. In order to interpret future change in precipitation climatology and SDII, we have calculated change in vertically integrated horizontal transport of moisture. Changes in precipitation climatology and SDII can be interpreted as the moisture convergence change associated with change in horizontal transport of moisture. Large moisture convergence was found due to either intensification or weakening of subtropical high depending on models.
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Comment by climatescinet on November 28, 2011 at 4:16am
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Estimation of persistence and trends in geostrophic wind speed for the assessment of wind energy yields in Northwest Europe
open access:
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1248-1
Abstract:
Wind climate in Northwest Europe is subject to long-term persistence (LTP), also called the Hurst phenomenon. Ignorance of LTP causes underestimation of climatic variability. The quantification of multi-year variability is important for the assessment of the uncertainty of future multi-year wind yields. Estimating LTP requires long homogeneous time series. Such series of wind observations are rare, but annual mean geostrophic wind speed (U) can be used instead. This study demonstrates a method to estimate the 10-year aggregated mean U for the near and the far future and its uncertainty in Northwest Europe. Time series of U were derived from daily sea level pressure from the European Climate Assessment Dataset. Minor inhomogeneities cannot be ruled out, but were shown to hardly affect the estimated Hurst exponent . A maximum likelihood method was adjusted to remove the biases in
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Comment by climatescinet on November 21, 2011 at 6:59am
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The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models
Open Access content:
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1235-6
Abstract
Project Athena is an international collaboration testing the efficacy of high-resolution global climate models. We compare results from 7-km mesh experiments of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and 10-km mesh experiments of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), focusing on the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) and its relationship with tropical cyclones (TC) among the boreal summer period (21 May–31 Aug) of 8 years (2001–2002, 2004–2009). In the first month of simulation, both models capture the intra-seasonal oscillatory behavior of the Indian monsoon similar to the observed boreal summer ISO in approximately half of the 8-year samples. The IFS simulates the NW–SE-oriented rainband and the westerly location better, while NICAM marginally reproduces mesoscale organized convective systems and better simulates the northward migration of the westerly peak and precipitation, particularly in 2006. The reproducibility of the evolution of MJO depends on the given year; IFS simulates the MJO signal well for 2002, while NICAM simulates it well for 2006. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that both models statistically reproduce MJO signals similar to observations, with slightly better phase speed reproduced by NICAM. Stronger TCs are simulated in NICAM than in IFS, and NICAM shows a wind-pressure relation for TCs closer to observations. TC cyclogenesis is active during MJO phases 3 and 4 in NICAM as in observations. The results show the potential of high-resolution global atmospheric models in reproducing some aspects of the relationship between MJO and TCs and the statistical behavior of TCs.
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Comment by climatescinet on November 21, 2011 at 6:57am
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Evolution and modulation of tropical heating from the last glacial maximum through the twenty-first century
Open Access content:
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1181-3
Abstract
Twentieth century observations show that during the last 50 years the sea-surface temperature (SST) of the tropical oceans has increased by ~0.5°C and the area of SST >26.5 and 28°C (arbitrarily referred to as the oceanic warm pool: OWP) by 15 and 50% respectively in association with an increase in green house gas concentrations, with non-understood natural variability or a combination of both. Based on CMIP3 projections the OWP is projected to double during twenty-first century in a moderate CO2 forcing scenario (IPCC A1B scenario). However, during the observational period the area of positive atmospheric heating (referred to as the dynamic warm pool, DWP), has remained constant. The threshold SST (T H ), which demarks the region of net heating and cooling, has increased from 26.6°C in the 1950s to 27.1°C in the last decade and it is projected to increase to ~28.5°C by 2100. Based on climate model simulations, the area of the DWP is projected to remain constant during the twenty-first century. Analysis of the paleoclimate model intercomparison project (PMIP I and II) simulations for the Last Glacial maximum and the Mid-Holocene periods show a very similar behaviour, with a larger OWP in periods of elevated tropical SST, and an almost constant DWP associated with a varying T H . The constancy of the DWP area, despite shifts in the background SST, is shown to be the result of a near exact matching between increases in the integrated convective heating within the DWP and the integrated radiative cooling outside the DWP as SST changes. Although the area of the DWP remains constant, the total tropical atmospheric heating is a strong function of the SST. For example the net heating has increased by about 10% from 1950 to 2000 and it is projected to increase by a further 20% by 2100. Such changes must be compensated by a more vigorous atmospheric circulation, with growth in convective heating within the warm pool, and an increase of subsiding air and stability outside the convective warm pool and an increase of vertical shear at the DWP boundaries. This finding is contrary to some conclusions from other studies but in accord with others. We discuss the similarities and differences at length.
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Comment by climatescinet on November 21, 2011 at 6:55am
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Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes
Open Access content:
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0326-z
Abstract
Thermal regimes in rivers and streams are fundamentally important to aquatic ecosystems and are expected to change in response to climate forcing as the Earth’s temperature warms. Description and attribution of stream temperature changes are key to understanding how these ecosystems may be affected by climate change, but difficult given the rarity of long-term monitoring data. We assembled 18 temperature time-series from sites on regulated and unregulated streams in the northwest U.S. to describe historical trends from 1980–2009 and assess thermal consistency between these stream categories. Statistically significant temperature trends were detected across seven sites on unregulated streams during all seasons of the year, with a cooling trend apparent during the spring and warming trends during the summer, fall, and winter. The amount of warming more than compensated for spring cooling to cause a net temperature increase, and rates of warming were highest during the summer (raw trend = 0.17°C/decade; reconstructed trend = 0.22°C/decade). Air temperature was the dominant factor explaining long-term stream temperature trends (82–94% of trends) and inter-annual variability (48–86% of variability), except during the summer when discharge accounted for approximately half (52%) of the inter-annual variation in stream temperatures. Seasonal temperature trends at eleven sites on regulated streams were qualitatively similar to those at unregulated sites if two sites managed to reduce summer and fall temperatures were excluded from the analysis. However, these trends were never statistically significant due to greater variation among sites that resulted from local water management policies and effects of upstream reservoirs. Despite serious deficiencies in the stream temperature monitoring record, our results suggest many streams in the northwest U.S. are exhibiting a regionally coherent response to climate forcing. More extensive monitoring efforts are needed as are techniques for short-term sensitivity analysis and reconstructing historical temperature trends so that spatial and temporal patterns of warming can be better understood. Continuation of warming trends this century will increasingly stress important regional salmon and trout resources and hamper efforts to recover these species, so comprehensive vulnerability assessments are needed to provide strategic frameworks for prioritizing conservation efforts.
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Comment by climatescinet on November 21, 2011 at 6:36am
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The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models
Free Open Access content:
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1235-6
Abstract
Project Athena is an international collaboration testing the efficacy of high-resolution global climate models. We compare results from 7-km mesh experiments of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and 10-km mesh experiments of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), focusing on the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) and its relationship with tropical cyclones (TC) among the boreal summer period (21 May–31 Aug) of 8 years (2001–2002, 2004–2009). In the first month of simulation, both models capture the intra-seasonal oscillatory behavior of the Indian monsoon similar to the observed boreal summer ISO in approximately half of the 8-year samples. The IFS simulates the NW–SE-oriented rainband and the westerly location better, while NICAM marginally reproduces mesoscale organized convective systems and better simulates the northward migration of the westerly peak and precipitation, particularly in 2006. The reproducibility of the evolution of MJO depends on the given year; IFS simulates the MJO signal well for 2002, while NICAM simulates it well for 2006. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that both models statistically reproduce MJO signals similar to observations, with slightly better phase speed reproduced by NICAM. Stronger TCs are simulated in NICAM than in IFS, and NICAM shows a wind-pressure relation for TCs closer to observations. TC cyclogenesis is active during MJO phases 3 and 4 in NICAM as in observations. The results show the potential of high-resolution global atmospheric models in reproducing some aspects of the relationship between MJO and TCs and the statistical behavior of TCs.
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